The media today are not the only creators of public opinion, but they still have enough influence to both create and resolve a crisis.
In times of fake news, social media, political turmoil, and an unstable environment, Croatia is a successful democracy that is overcoming most challenges, says Krešimir Macan, a communication and political advisor, lecturer specialized in crisis communication, strategic communication in politics, and digital social media, and author of the podcast “Špica s Macanom” where he talks about current affairs (bit.ly/spicamacan). In an interview with Diplomacy&Commerce magazine, he explains the political situation from his professional perspective, discusses the media, and talks about crisis communication, which is a frequent need for many in the public and political scene in the country.
- As an expert in strategic communication in politics and a consultant in this field, how would you assess the general political situation in Croatia?
Overall, it seems quite stable, with excellent indicators like the highest GDP growth in the EU zone and the highest employment ever, but also the highest inflation, which, although high, still remains within acceptable limits compared to the double-digit numbers of 2022/23. We are witnessing an internal political dynamic since the parliamentary elections in April 2024. I like to say that every election is a story in itself, which has been confirmed in the three cycles so far in this super-election year that started in April 2024 with parliamentary elections, followed by EU elections, presidential elections, and ending with local elections on May 18. President Milanović, by getting involved in the parliamentary campaign (although the Constitutional Court stopped this as unconstitutional with their warnings since he didn’t resign), managed to further push the SDP, which convincingly returned to second place in the polls, reducing the gap with HDZ. We are now witnessing a red wave of optimism, which can be seen in the polls and results. This is especially evident in the presidential elections, where Croatia became quite red in both rounds. However, HDZ responded equally well in the parliamentary elections, and with one of the highest turnouts at 62%, they convincingly won and entered their record third mandate with Andrej Plenković as Prime Minister and party president. This result is due to both the campaign and the significant pay increases in the public sector that preceded the elections, which today caused a slightly higher inflation compared to the rest of the EU. The convincing re-election of President Milanović and Plenković’s awkward response on election night somewhat shifted public sentiment to the left, which could affect the local elections more than we initially thought. At the same time, we are witnessing significant dynamics on the far-right, where the Homeland Movement, as a key coalition partner of HDZ, has split and fallen to minimal ratings. Although they still have enough seats in the Parliament to maintain the coalition, the stabilization of the new DOMiNO party and the emergence of Tomislav Jonjić in the presidential elections suggests that there will be a significant reshuffling of voters on the far-right. This means that, at the moment, nobody wants potential early parliamentary elections, and the ruling coalition with just 76 seats (one more than needed) is more than stable.
- How does this situation look from a communication perspective? What kind of messages are being sent and in what way? Do they have an effect, and what kind of effect is it?
Oh, this could be discussed at length. It has been shown that the sovereignist and populist approach à la Trump by President Milanović is acceptable to the majority of citizens, and that such discourse today fares better than any traditional one. I hope he will continue with the conciliatory tone from the election night, and that over the next five years we won’t witness another “hard cohabitation” between President Milanović and Prime Minister Plenković. Unfortunately, in both the world and Croatia, elements of conspiracy theories and even fake news are entering the mainstream, and this is a trend we will clearly struggle to deal with, especially after the changes in the US.
- The goal of all political campaigns is to win over the undecided while maintaining a steady base of supporters. Are there any problems in communication and message delivery, and if so, what are they? Where is the biggest communication problem, and is it with those sending the messages or with the public’s perception of these?
You’d be surprised how many politicians don’t know this, so they try to appeal to everyone. I think the biggest misconception for most politicians, an excellent example being Tomislav Jonjić in the last presidential elections, is that they believe the media should do the campaigning for them and be more open to their appearances. They blame the very media that are allegedly closed off to them for their somewhat weaker results. With digital transformation, everything has changed, and today, if you’re serious, you have to be your own media by using social platforms from Facebook to TikTok. This requires a systematic and planned effort over time, yet our politicians prefer working only during official campaigns, even though we all know that a campaign starts the first day they take office. Those who have used digital platforms well have done better in several recent electoral cycles. Just think of Nina Skočak, the TikToker, and her excellent result in the EU elections – she showed that with a good social media campaign, you can reach young people and achieve great results.
- In situations where ministers either resign or are replaced frequently, scandals involving high-ranking officials are exposed, and illegal actions come to light, crisis communication plays a crucial role in managing the public’s perception and protecting the integrity of the government.
We’ve had enough of these situations to see some progress, both in terms of communication and political responsibility. Ministers have resigned in cases where they were implicated in scandals, such as providing exam questions for state tests or behaving inappropriately in public, like the most recent case of a minister who was involved in a gun incident before assuming office. This is a significant leap forward in political culture. In the past, there was often a tendency to maintain the presumption of innocence until the final court ruling, and to delay the resignation of such ministers (for example, in Milanović’s government, Deputy Prime Minister Čačić). Now, it is clear that ministers should step down as soon as there are reasonable doubts about their inappropriate actions, and we are nearing the point where political responsibility leads to their departure, which would mark a major step forward in Croatian politics. Prime Minister Plenković has learned that it’s better to replace a controversial person as soon as possible to prevent further damage to the government, especially since he is usually not directly involved in the problematic decisions. In crisis communication, it’s important to take the initiative and control the narrative, because if you don’t, someone else will take charge of it, and they may not be your ally. Creating an impression of transparency is vital; you need to provide enough information and present it truthfully to satisfy the public, then you control the story. If there is bad news, it’s often best to deliver it yourself, because then you control the communication framework. This can be harder to achieve when individuals are under investigation or in custody.
- The role of the media in shaping public opinion is significant and crucial, but how much do the media influence the creation of crises and what is your view of their relationship with a specific conflicting party? How would you rate the neutrality and professionalism of the media?
In today’s era of hyper-fast news flow via social media, I would say that the traditional media will make a mistake if they try to compete with them, rather than positioning themselves as a place for verified news. This news don’t necessarily have to be objective, because objectivity is difficult to expect today, except for public radio and TV services in Europe, which should remain a bulwark against the tide of “suspicious” news flooding us from all sides. The media today are not the only creators of public opinion, but they still have enough influence to both create and resolve crises. The media in Croatia are free, more often leaning left on average, and are very critical of almost everything in the country. This can sometimes give the impression that the situation is dramatic or critical, even though many indicators suggest progress – strong economic growth, increased employment, the Euro, Schengen, and excellent tourist seasons despite COVID-19. Even these small steps toward political responsibility are often overly criticized as insufficient, even though it’s unrealistic to expect overnight changes or large reforms. In such instances, they could be more constructive and support changes (not only political ones) for the betterment of the country. We are witnessing that, due to declining revenues, media outlets are reducing the number of employees and journalists, which is starting to affect the quality of some content and editorial standards. There are significant challenges regarding where to draw the line between public and private information in cases of investigations or other situations that can be sensationalized without thinking about the long-term consequences for the people involved. This is something we often encounter in practice, because once something gets to Google, it’s hard to remove it, even though Google offers the “right to be forgotten” option. We need to find ways to help traditional media maintain a higher level of professionalism compared to others. Consider the alleged “acid” scandal with Romerquelle mineral water and its media coverage – in the end, there was no scandal. Coca Cola, the parent company, also responded slowly to the crisis that emerged on WhatsApp. Or take the coverage of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Somewhere along the way, we’ve lost the rule of relying on at least two sources before publishing news, as today it’s more important to be the first rather than to be right. This is a long-term trap for all traditional media.
- In addition to traditional media, social networks are taking the lead in providing information, especially among the younger population. How and in what way can we influence content and reduce the spread of fake news and similar content, which is often unverified and inauthentic?
The million-dollar question. With the recent removal of fact-checkers on Meta platforms, we risk not having anyone to verify the truthfulness of claims made in posts on social media. I believe it’s an illusion that the community will be able to handle this on its own, as one side is always louder, and that’s usually the far-right. That’s why the role of traditional media is crucial; they must be a barrier to unverified and false news. This is a major challenge that we all must work on.
- We are approaching local elections in the spring. How do you think the campaign will look and what will be the key topics of the local elections (really local issues or national ones like corruption, America, the EU…)? What type of communication do you expect in the campaign?
In general, the level of professionalism in campaigns here has fallen, so I don’t expect much creativity. Voters are increasingly making their decisions on election day – even one in every six voters in the last parliamentary elections – so it’s important to bring them to the polling stations, and that’s what election campaigns are for. I mentioned a kind of red wave that is being felt in Croatia, and that could affect the results of the second rounds in many places where the entire opposition could unite against HDZ candidates. HDZ is facing a lot of challenges, especially at the county level, as they could lose some for the first time. In some areas, candidates have not yet been announced, and we are less than three months away from the elections. I recommend that your readers watch Špica s Macanom on this topic, where we have thoroughly analysed the situation in all counties and major cities. We are somehow of the opinion that there won’t be major upheavals in the first four cities (Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, and Osijek), but there are enough open positions across Croatia where May 18th could surprise us.